Let's assume that nearly four decades of rotten lottery luck doesn't change for the Mavericks on Tuesday.
They have a decent chance to get the top overall pick in the draft but a better chance of picking fourth or even fifth.
In fact, their best chance (29 percent) is to pick fifth.
So let's take it on faith that they won't move up to the No. 1 or No. 2 pick.
After all, it's never happened. In all their trips to the lottery -- and that was an annual rite in the '90s -- the Mavericks have never moved up. In fact, it's become a bit of a joke around the front office that the key to Michael Finley's trip to Chicago for the lottery is to not move down.
That would be considered a win.
So what happens when the Mavericks are picking somewhere outside the top two?
It would be smart of Maverick fans to get as familiar as they can with Luka Doncic.
The Slovenian teenager is considered the best talent to come from the European League since Kristaps Porzingis in 2015. And his skills are such that he's at least partially in the discussion for being the overall No. 1 selection, depending on who gets that pick on Tuesday in Chicago.
Most likely, he'll go a pick or two or three below that.
That would put him right in the Mavericks' wheelhouse, for many reasons.
First of all, they are in the market for another playmaker and Doncic (pronounced DON-sick) has all the tools to be an impact player offensively. His outside shot isn't quite automatic yet. But he's got loads of weapons when it comes to getting the ball in the basket.
"Think of a 6-7 Steve Nash that isn't quite the shooter Steve was but is only a teenager," owner Mark Cuban said. "Good vision and can pass. He was just named to the Euroleague All-Star team for the first time."
That much is true, and it's a rarity for a 19-year-old.
And by the way, with players having officially declared for the draft, it is permissible for team officials to comment on potential draftees.
Perhaps the most important thing that might draw the Mavericks to Doncic like a moth to a light bulb is the obvious symmetry of having him in Dallas.
Dirk Nowitzki's 21st season would be Doncic's first.
Who better to guide him through the pitfalls of arriving in a new part of the world with all sorts of strange things flying at him both on and off the basketball court?
So who is Doncic?
He's got all the skills you could want and probably could end up being a point guard at 6-7. He will come in as a shooting guard, but his ballhandling and shooting will give him every opportunity to be a point guard.
The Mavericks know all about Doncic.
Holger Geschwindner has seen him play several games with Real Madrid and earlier this season gave a glowing report about Doncic's skill level.
President of basketball operations Donnie Nelson has made numerous trips to Europe in the past year, at least in part to lay eyes on Doncic.
"He impacts the game in a variety of ways, especially as a shooter/scorer, rebounder and his vision is perhaps his greatest asset," Nelson said. "Point forward ability as a solid playmaker who likes the ball in his hands."
Nelson added that Doncic has an excellent basketball IQ and that playing a significant role for one of the best teams in Europe at his age is a sign of his huge upside.
But there are concerns, too.
"He plays beyond his years," Nelson said. "The biggest concern is his lack of athleticism, which could really be a problem defensively as there are questions regarding which position, if any, he can guard in the NBA."
That said, the Mavericks and a lot of other teams would like the chance to help with those deficiencies.
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