Well over $20 million has been spent on broadcast TV ads in the contests for U.S. Senate and governor in Wisconsin since August. More than 40,000 campaign spots have aired.
Most of them have been negative.
That’s a lot of “incoming” for the candidates in these two big races.
How are they weathering the storm?
Some better than others.
Here is a look at the role television ads are playing in these races, and how the major-party contenders for governor and Senate are holding up against the battering that comes with competitive statewide elections:
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Tammy Baldwin. The first-term Senate Democrat has been the target of millions of dollars in GOP attack ads going back to last year, but her public image in Wisconsin has grown more positive, not negative, in recent months. In a survey released last week by Marquette Law School, 49 percent viewed her favorably and 42 percent viewed her unfavorably. That is markedly better than March and June, when her image was slightly negative. Baldwin is leading her race by double-digits in most surveys.
Leah Vukmir. Baldwin’s GOP challenger has been outspent in both her Republican primary against Kevin Nicholson and in the general election against Baldwin. She has been the target of negative ads in both contests. She was portrayed in the primary as an establishment Republican who was insufficiently pro-Trump. In the general election, she’s been pummeled by Baldwin over the issue of health care.
Vukmir is not faring well in the polls, suggesting the attacks have taken a toll. Just after the primary, 30 percent of likely voters viewed her favorably, 29 percent unfavorably in Marquette’s polling. Since then, her side has been outspent 3-to-2. Her negative rating has spiked, but her positives haven’t. In the Marquette poll released last week, 30 percent viewed her favorably, 43 percent unfavorably.
Scott Walker. The Republican governor is the kind of politician most immune to the impact of campaign advertising, because he is so well known, he has such an established history and people have such strong opinions about him. That makes it very difficult to influence perceptions of him with TV ads. Walker has been the target of negative advertising, but he’s outspending his opponent significantly. His numbers actually improved in the last Marquette poll, but overall, they’re in a very familiar place: 48 percent viewed him positively and 49% negatively. His ratings were worse in an early October poll by Marist/NBC (42 percent favorable, 54 percent unfavorable), but Walker’s numbers were also bad in Marist’s previous poll (July). In other words, there’s no clear evidence in either poll that the governor’s image has worsened during the Democrats’ general election ad campaign against him.
Tony Evers. Walker’s Democratic challenger began the contest without a strong political identity and unknown to lots of voters. He was the opposite of Walker in this respect, meaning the potential to shape his image with TV ads was much greater.
There are signs he’s being damaged by negative ads, though the evidence in the public polling is mixed.
One thing that’s not in question: Evers is taking a lot of hits. Of these four candidates, he’s had by far the biggest bull's-eye on his back this fall. Between Aug. 15 (the day after the primary) and Oct. 4, Walker and his GOP allies aired $6.3 million in “negative” ads on broadcast TV in the race for governor, according to data provided to the Journal Sentinel by Kantar Media/CMAG, a nonpartisan firm that tracks television ads.
The term “negative” here does not refer to the nastiness or harshness of the ads, which can’t really be quantified. It simply refers to ads aired by one side that criticize a candidate on the other side. In addition to the $6.3 million in purely negative ads, the pro-Walker side aired another $2.2 million in “contrast” ads, meaning those spots featured both negative attacks on Evers and positive messages about Walker. Combining the two, that’s $8.5 million in ads (more than 19,000 airings) that criticized Evers.
By contrast, there has been about $2.4 in broadcast TV advertising saying nice things about Evers (either purely positive ads or “contrast” ads by Democrats that both praised Evers and attacked Walker).
So that’s roughly four negative messages about Evers in broadcast television for every positive one.
There isn't much evidence in the Marquette polling that the anti-Evers blitz had much initial impact. The share of registered voters who viewed him favorably went up from 31 percent to 35 percent between August and September, and the share who viewed him unfavorably rose by about the same amount, from 23 percent to 26 percent. This was the period when Walker was running ads attacking Evers, the state school superintendent, over a case involving a teacher’s use of pornography.
But in the latest Marquette poll, Evers’ ratings did worsen. The share who viewed him favorably went up 3 points from 38 percent to 41 percent, while the share who viewed him unfavorably went up 11 points, from 27 percent to 38 percent. During this period, Walker’s line of attack shifted, and he began to bash Evers on more conventional political grounds, saying he would raise taxes and harm the state’s economy.
So the Marquette polling suggests Evers’ negatives are rising in the midst of a virtual dead-heat race. And that has occurred during a sustained Walker television blitz against him. But the Marist poll paints a rosier picture for Democrats, with Evers enjoying a more positive image and leading Walker by high single-digits.
Sometimes negative ads work. Sometimes they don’t. We may end up with examples of both in Wisconsin this year. But usually it’s almost impossible to know with certitude, because so many other factors could explain a shift in the polls. And because the impact of political advertising is usually on the margins. It is spending vast sums to achieve small effects. Most voters would vote the same way if there were no ads.
The 2018 contest for governor in Wisconsin is the kind of race where negative ads can plausibly influence the outcome. It features a low-profile candidate without a strong political identity (Evers) who is being significantly outspent and peppered with attack ads. Yet it also features a governor about whom public opinion is mostly “baked in” and divided almost right down the middle.
It's an election that could be decided on the margins, which is where campaigns usually matter.
The race is a referendum on Walker. But it's also a test of how his relatively untested opponent weathers the storm of a competitive modern campaign.
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